Forecasting Energy Consumption Using Calculation of CDDs in Pakistan Using Two Different Methods

Abstract

Energy consumption has increased due to industrialization and other factors involved which gives the researchers to ponder upon the methods to set policy and forecast the need of energy in coming days. Pakistan with different cities comprising of various climatic zones, this study shown the highest CDDs in city of Hyderabad among large cities with high population flux and then followed by Karachi with 2^nd highest CDDs among the mentioned cities with highest population and thus huge consumption of power, Quetta having lowest CDDs among the cities due to highland and cold climatic region. Pakistan location is affected by the GHGs aftermath is floods and different natural catastrophe as mentioned by UN because it is surrounded one of largest emitters of CO₂ and Pakistan is 17^th Largest emitter of GHGs. These natural catastrophes can be due to coal power projects emissions that are increasing day by day and effecting the local climate of Pakistan, but the neighboring countries emissions is also affecting the climate of Pakistan. There are two methods discussed in this paper and their results and validation are thus observed. The two methods are ASHRAEs method and Hitchens’s method. The aim is to calculate the CDDs of major cities or provincial capitals of Pakistan. The study will help policy makers to plan the power projects accordingly by considering the degree days in major cities of Pakistan. In this research climatic regions of the country were studied with the average temperatures taken for the calculation of CDDs of major cities of Pakistan and their data was procured from meteorological department of Pakistan to study the CDDs of the few cities. This is mostly used for prediction of monthly degree days using Hitchens’s method for month of year and can be conveyed to power generation and distribution companies. Hitchens’s method and ASHRAE were used, and it validated the calculation for every mentioned city in Pakistan. Due to simplicity ASHRAE came out as simple and balanced one and authenticated by most researchers worldwide.